Risk Assessment Method of PV Integrated Power System Considering Time Periodic Characteristics of Solar Irradiance
WEI Yong1, LI Haoran2, FAN Xuefeng1, NIU Zhicheng1, WANG Jian2, XIONG Xiaofu2
1. Economic Research Institute of State Grid Gansu Electric Power Company, Lanzhou 730050, Gansu Province, China; 2. State Key Laboratory of Power Transmission Equipment & System Security and New Technology (Chongqing University), Shapingba District, Chongqing 400044, China;
Abstract: Using probability distribution models to simulate solar irradiance is a common method for mid- and long-term risk assessment of PV integrated power system at present. However, it cannot reflect the time-varying characteristics of PV output and system risk. Aiming at above deficiencies, this paper analyzes the time-varying patterns of solar irradiance samples collected in a certain photovoltaic plant in different time scales. The trend of solar irradiance in monthly time scale is fitted with a third-order Fourier function. The fluctuation characteristics of solar irradiance in daily time scale is simulated with a three-parameter Weibull distribution. The time periodic characteristics model of solar irradiance can be represented as superposition of above two parts. Validity and universality of this model is verified through case study. According to the relationship of photoelectric transformation, time periodic characteristics model of photovoltaic output is obtained. Furthermore, the time-varying risk of PV integrated power system is assessed through Monte Carlo simulation. Validity of the proposed method is verified through a case analysis with IEEE- RTS79 system. The result of risk assessment can be applied to mid- and long-term power system dispatching and photovoltaic plant maintenance decision.
魏勇, 李浩然, 范雪峰, 牛志成, 王建, 熊小伏. 计及日照强度时间周期特征的光伏并网系统风险评估方法[J]. 电网技术, 2018, 42(8): 2562-2569.
WEI Yong, LI Haoran, FAN Xuefeng, NIU Zhicheng, WANG Jian, XIONG Xiaofu. Risk Assessment Method of PV Integrated Power System Considering Time Periodic Characteristics of Solar Irradiance. POWER SYSTEM TECHNOLOGY, 2018, 42(8): 2562-2569.
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