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电网技术 2009, 33(8) 87-92 DOI:
ISSN: 1000-3673 CN: 11-2410/TM |
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| 电力市场 |
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用于小水电地区负荷预测的两阶段还原法 |
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徐玮1,罗欣2,刘梅2,那志强3,吴臻3,黄静3,姜巍3,孙珂3 |
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1．电力系统及发电设备控制和仿真国家重点实验室(清华大学电机系)，北京市 海淀区 100084；
2．北京清软创新科技有限公司，北京市 海淀区 100192；
3．浙江电力调度通信中心，浙江省 杭州市 310007
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摘要：
影响电力负荷预测的因素较多，其中小水电出力的强不确定性对多小水电地区负荷预测准确率的影响尤其明显。文章首先分析了小水电发电负荷的特性及主要相关因素，根据小水电的规律性，提出了小水电负荷预测的有效方法。考虑到不同负荷成分的差异性，提出了多小水电地区负荷预测的两阶段还原法，将网供负荷分解为全社会负荷与小水电负荷，根据各自特点选择不同的适合的方法预测，再还原为网供负荷预测结果。实例验证了文中方法的正确性和有效性。文中的工作对于多小水电地区网供负荷或小水电负荷预测具有重要现实意义与实用价值。 |
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关键词：
电力系统;负荷预测;网供负荷;小水电;两阶段还原法
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Application of Two-Phase Reduction Method in Load Forecasting for Regions with Abundant Small Hydropower |
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XU Wei1，LUO Xin2，LIU Mei2，NA Zhi-qiang3，WU Zhen3，HUANG Jing3，JIANG Wei3，SUN Ke3 |
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1．State Key Lab of Control and Simulation of Power Systems and Generation Equipments
(Department of Electrical Engineering，Tsinghua University)，Haidian District，Beijing 100084，China；
2．Beijing Tsingsoft Innovation Technology Co., Ltd.，Haidian District，Beijing 100192，China；
3．Zhejiang Electric Power Dispatching & Communication Center，Hangzhou 310007，Zhejiang Province，China
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Abstract:
There are many factors impacting power load forecasting, in which the impact of strong uncertainty of small hydropower output on forecasting accuracy of the region with abundant small hydropower is especially evident. In this paper, firstly the characteristics of small hydropower generation load and main correlation factors are analyzed; then according to the regularity of small hydropower, an effective method for small hydropower load forecasting is proposed. Considering the diversity of different load components, a two-phase reduction method for region with abundant small hydropower is put forward, which divides the loads supplied by power network into whole social load and small hydropower load, which are forecasted by different appropriate methods according to their respective features, and then the forecasting results of different load components will be incorporated into the forecasting results of loads supplied by power network. A case is given to demonstrate the correctness and effectiveness of the proposed method. Results of this research are available for reference to forecasting of small hydropower load and forecasting of network-supplied load in region with abundant small hydropower. |
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Keywords:
power system;load forecasting;network supply load;small hydropower;two-phase reduction method
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收稿日期 2008-12-24 修回日期 网络版发布日期 2009-04-20 |
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DOI: |
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基金项目:
高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金资助项目(200800030039)。 |
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通讯作者: 徐玮 |
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作者简介: 徐玮(1980—)，男，在站博士后，研究方向为电力市场，E-mail：xu_wei@mail.tsinghua.edu.cn；
罗欣(1983—)，女，硕士，研究方向为负荷预测，E-mail：xluo@tsingsoft.com；
刘梅(1971—)，女，硕士，研究方向为负荷预测，E-mail：lm@tsingsoft.com。
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作者Email: |
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