A Prediction Method of Fault Risk Level for Distribution Network Considering Correlation of Weather Factors
ZHANG Wen1, SHENG Wanxing2, LIU Keyan2, DU Songhuai1, JIA Dongli2, BAI Muke2
1. College of Information and Electrical Engineering, China Agriculture University, Haidian District, Beijing 100083, China; 2. China Electric Power Research Institute, Haidian District, Beijing 100192, China
Abstract: It is significant for operation and maintenance of distribution network to forecast risk level more accurately. In allusion to the problems of many factor and strong redundancy related to fault, a method of fault feature selection and fault outage risk level prediction for distribution network considering meteorological factors was proposed. Eighteen fault features of distribution network were summarized after data preprocessing and the basis of risk level was determined after considering failure frequency, proportion of outage duration and power supply. An improved G-ReliefF algorithm was proposed to calculate fault feature weights and eliminate redundancy. Then, an Adaboost based C4.5 decision tree algorithm was used to forecast the risk level of distribution network fault and find relationship between fault outage risk level and meteorological factors. Results of analyzing calculation example showed that the proposed method is effective. It provides an efficient basis for pre-control of distribution network risk.
张稳, 盛万兴, 刘科研, 杜松怀, 贾东梨, 白牧可. 计及天气因素相关性的配电网故障风险等级预测方法[J]. 电网技术, 2018, 42(8): 2391-2398.
ZHANG Wen, SHENG Wanxing, LIU Keyan, DU Songhuai, JIA Dongli, BAI Muke. A Prediction Method of Fault Risk Level for Distribution Network Considering Correlation of Weather Factors. POWER SYSTEM TECHNOLOGY, 2018, 42(8): 2391-2398.
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